Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 30.522406 32.884549 35.438117 38.421043 41.832293 45.639042 50.247548
2025-03-23 27.408666 30.689817 34.474084 39.228139 45.140811 52.395847 62.213314
2025-03-30 24.970922 28.633596 33.034015 38.833842 46.479634 56.539711 71.405844
2025-04-06 23.156010 27.023600 31.814785 38.368475 47.421391 60.051976 80.239138
2025-04-13 21.363981 25.239096 30.144147 37.035212 46.889131 61.269582 85.753565
2025-04-20 20.833536 24.989104 30.393256 38.250028 50.008876 68.257365 102.293700
2025-04-27 20.251484 24.605685 30.400810 39.082776 52.622736 74.886177 120.383339
2025-05-04 19.807520 24.359844 30.553586 40.107301 55.632257 82.741275 144.057219
2025-05-11 19.080769 23.671469 30.017934 40.020126 56.787212 87.478293 163.038971
2025-05-18 18.452634 23.077388 29.566634 40.003815 58.032624 92.618242 185.743978
2025-05-25 17.676027 22.229695 28.685580 39.218764 57.808518 94.723743 201.288580
2025-06-01 16.850100 21.272637 27.587661 37.994530 56.642541 94.608022 210.095484
2025-06-08 15.908911 20.154994 26.257903 36.408249 54.855509 93.307884 216.430865
2025-06-15 15.619040 19.971396 26.336490 37.187305 57.682534 103.328525 273.898007
2025-06-22 15.084894 19.399894 25.779450 36.827103 58.223963 108.056808 316.819096
2025-06-29 14.579775 18.845990 25.214668 36.399935 58.563995 112.394272 365.628482
2025-07-06 13.936567 18.058805 24.241358 35.174448 57.083918 111.429901 383.435429
2025-07-13 13.839654 18.086729 24.561251 36.291155 60.766617 126.420800 550.960516
2025-07-20 13.673104 17.998576 24.685004 37.055590 63.811925 141.035324 807.383637
2025-07-27 13.547391 17.965352 24.893322 37.994903 67.444304 159.761857 1364.133724
2025-08-03 13.241224 17.637048 24.589905 37.915029 68.591395 170.060886 2046.323044
2025-08-10 12.965003 17.344536 24.330956 37.900082 69.906044 181.940486 3553.516632
2025-08-17 12.583410 16.871737 23.742769 37.180342 69.282639 185.146543 5130.369392